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Are housing rents in cities bouncing back?

The pandemic battered big cities, but mid-sized ones are rebounding fast

城市的住房租金在反弹吗？

疫情打击了大城市，但中等规模的城市正在快速反弹

One featureof the global economy over the past 20 years was the flourishing of the few global cities most successful at attracting money, ideas and people. Property values in those places—such as London, New York and Sydney—soared. Rent for an average studio flat in downtown San Francisco, one of the priciest places on the planet, cost about $,2,500 a month at the end of 2019.

在过去20年里，全球经济的一个特点是，在吸引资金、思想和人员方面最成功的几个全球城市的繁荣。这些地方的房地产价值--如伦敦、纽约和悉尼--飙升。2019年底，地球上最昂贵的地方之一的旧金山市中心的平均单间公寓的租金约为2500美元/月。

Over the past 21 months, however, those cities were the most affected by the covid-19 pandemic. Lockdowns did away with hustle and bustle. As tenantsfled to the safety of less-dense placesthe price of renting property fell. By December 2020, rents in New York City had fallen by 6% from their pre-pandemic peak (and by 15% in Manhattan) according to Zillow, a listings firm. Similarly in London, rents fell by 8.5% in the year to December according to Zoopla, another listings firm. Prices in Berlin, Sydney and Toronto declined too.

然而，在过去21个月里，这些城市受新冠疫情的影响最大。封锁消除了喧嚣和骚动。随着租户逃到密度较低的安全地方，租房价格下降。根据房源公司Zillow的数据，到2020年12月，纽约市的租金已经比大流行前的峰值下降了6%（曼哈顿下降了15%）。同样，在伦敦，根据另一家房源公司Zoopla的数据，截至12月，租金下降了8.5%。柏林、悉尼和多伦多的房价也出现了下降。

Some commentators thought big cities might lose their allure permanently. The adoption of remote working,particularly among tech workers, caused cheaper, secondary cities to heat up. Rents in Phoenix, Arizona, rose by 23% in the year to October, compared with 11% across America as a whole. In some cities it has become easier to consider commuting, since people are happier to sit on a train for longer if it is only once or twice a week. Prices in Bristol, a 90-minute journey from London, have risen by 8.4% in the past year, compared with 4.6% across Britain. Cities on islands have become attractive too. Hobart, a city in Tasmania, in Australia, and Victoria, on Canada’s Vancouver Island, have both seen rents rise by double digits over the past year.

一些评论家认为，大城市可能会永久地失去其吸引力。远程工作的采用，特别是在科技工作者中，导致更便宜的二级城市升温。在截至10月的一年中，亚利桑那州凤凰城的房租上涨了23%，而整个美国的房租则上涨了11%。在一些城市，考虑通勤变得更加容易，因为如果每周只有一到两次，人们更乐意在火车上坐更长时间。布里斯托尔距离伦敦有90分钟的路程，在过去一年中，布里斯托尔的房价上涨了8.4%，而整个英国的房价则上涨了4.6%。岛屿上的城市也变得有吸引力。澳大利亚塔斯马尼亚州的城市霍巴特和加拿大温哥华岛的维多利亚，在过去一年中，租金都上涨了两位数。

Yet after their decline last year, rents are rising again in the biggest cities, too. Demand has risen as graduates and international workers start relocating again, and some rental stock has been sold for owner-occupation. Rents in New York City and Sydney are up by 6% in the year to October. London rents have risen by just 1.6% over the past year, but Spareroom, a company that lists spare rooms to rent, finds that among 50 British cities, demand for rooms compared to those available, has risen most in the capital.

然而，在去年下降之后，最大城市的租金也在回升。由于毕业生和国际工人开始再次搬迁，需求也随之上升，一些出租房已被出售供业主居住。在截至10月的一年中，纽约市和悉尼的租金上涨了6%。伦敦的租金在过去一年只上涨了1.6%，但Spareroom公司，一家列出空闲房间出租的公司，发现在50个英国城市中，与可用的房间相比，首都的房间需求上涨最多。

Although there has been a “levelling-up” effect caused by the pandemic, with smaller cities seeing prices rise faster than in the biggest cities, rents are now rising across the board. Faced with grumbling from voters, some policymakers are considering introducing rent caps or restrictions on investment from big financial firms. This is likely tomake matters worse. And for those who, lured by the renewal of the city, are planning a move to smaller cities like Phoenix or Bristol, the good news is that prices in the fastest-rising cities are still one-quarter lower on average, than in the most expensive cities.

虽然疫情造成了 "平坦化 "效应，小城市的房价比大城市上涨得更快，但现在租金正在全面上涨。面对选民的抱怨，一些政策制定者正在考虑引入租金上限或对大型金融公司投资的限制。这可能会使事情变得更糟。而对于那些被城市更新所吸引，打算搬到凤凰城或布里斯托尔等小城市的人来说，好消息是，上升最快的城市的房价仍比最昂贵的城市平均低四分之一。